Overview

• François Bayrou will seek the Assembly’s confidence on Monday afternoon, with defeat widely expected after LFI and the RN pledged to vote against his €44 billion savings plan.
• Under Article 49.1, a failed vote would force Bayrou to tender his government’s resignation, leaving Macron to choose a new prime minister, run a caretaker cabinet, or dissolve the Assembly.
• Élysée deliberations continue without a decision, with names circulating from the center and right—Sébastien Lecornu, Gérald Darmanin, Catherine Vautrin, Éric Lombard, Xavier Bertrand—and renewed pressure on Jean‑Yves Le Drian, as outreach to the PS is tested.
• Les Républicains remain split: group chief Laurent Wauquiez granted deputies freedom to vote and said many will back Bayrou, contradicting party leader Bruno Retailleau’s call to support and underscoring the difficulty of mustering stable majorities.
• Social pressure is building ahead of the September 10 “Bloquons tout” actions—supported by 46% in an Ipsos‑BVA‑CESI poll—while a YouGov survey finds 58% of French respondents think Macron should resign if the government falls.