Overview

• Talks with Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella produced “no miracle,” with the National Rally reaffirming opposition and urging a rapid dissolution of parliament.
• The Sept. 8 confidence vote is expected to unseat the minority government, as far-left and far-right blocs control more than 320 seats against about 210 for centrists and allied conservatives.
• Bayrou tied his tenure to a 2026 savings plan of roughly €43.8–44 billion, featuring spending cuts such as suspending pension indexation and scrapping two public holidays.
• Finance Minister Éric Lombard signaled that, if Bayrou falls, a smaller deficit package negotiated with the left would likely be needed, while names circulating for a successor include Sébastien Lecornu, Gérald Darmanin, Éric Lombard and Catherine Vautrin.
• Market nerves have intensified with French 10-year yields rising at times above Greece’s and major bank shares sliding, as a Sept. 10 “Bloquons Tout” disruption campaign is planned.