Overview

• The National Assembly votes Monday after Bayrou tied his government's survival to his 2026 austerity program, with left parties and the Rassemblement National pledging to vote no.
• To survive, Bayrou needs more yes than no votes, yet his minority camp lacks the numbers and even some Republicans may abstain according to reports.
• His plan targets roughly €43.8–44 billion in savings by freezing pensions, cutting social spending and scrapping two public holidays, citing debt of about €3.3 trillion, 114% of GDP, and a 5.8% deficit.
• Protest calls intensify with a grassroots 'Bloquons tout' action slated for Wednesday and union-led nationwide strikes on 18 September, including transport walkouts and possible flight disruptions.
• If the government falls, it remains in a caretaker role as Macron either names a new prime minister or considers dissolving the Assembly, with markets already charging about 80 basis points over Bunds and polls indicating RN gains in any new election.