Overview

• The government holds a Council of Ministers today as François Bayrou begins a last-ditch push and prepares a televised interview on TF1 this evening.
• La France insoumise and the Rassemblement National say they will not grant confidence, making defeat probable, while Les Républicains leaders signal support in a bid to keep the government afloat.
• Bayrou’s pitch centers on a specific contribution from high earners, the suppression of unjustified tax niches that benefit affluent households and large firms, and tougher action against tax and social fraud, with a floated cut to two public holidays drawing criticism.
• An Elabe poll for BFMTV finds 72% of respondents oppose granting confidence, and many consider the government’s fall not economically problematic, with sizable shares favoring dissolution or even a presidential resignation.
• If confidence fails, Bayrou would have to resign and Emmanuel Macron would need to nominate a new prime minister or weigh dissolution, as unions prepare a nationwide action on September 10 and LFI plans a mid-September resolution targeting the president.