Overview

• All major opposition groups, from the left to the far right, say they will vote against the government, making a loss in the National Assembly probable and a resignation under Article 49-1 the likely consequence.
• An Elabe poll reports 72% of respondents do not want Parliament to grant confidence, underscoring the political headwinds facing the prime minister.
• The 2026 blueprint targets €43.8 billion in savings with measures including a spending freeze replicating 2025 levels, a freeze on income‑tax brackets and pension indexation, cuts to health and social outlays such as doubling the annual cap on medical co‑payments to €100, maintaining a high‑income contribution, proposing removal of two public holidays, and reducing public‑sector jobs.
• Unions have condemned the plan, with organizers calling a nationwide day of disruption for 10 September; Bayrou’s appearance at the CFDT’s summer event went ahead outside Paris after local threats and did not yield support.
• Business leaders warn of instability and the Paris market fell about 1.7% on Tuesday; Macron’s allies pledge support as the cabinet meets today, while RN leader Jordan Bardella urges a dissolution or presidential resignation.