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Bayrou Faces Likely Defeat in Sept. 8 Confidence Vote as Talks Fail and Markets Wobble

With opposition parties positioned to topple him, Macron is weighing installing a new prime minister rather than risking another snap election.

Overview

  • Far‑right and left leaders reaffirm they will vote Bayrou out, with Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella calling for a rapid dissolution as seat counts point to defeat on Monday.
  • Bayrou’s 2026 plan targets roughly €44 billion in savings, largely through spending cuts including reduced public hiring, suspending pension indexation to inflation, and scrapping two public holidays.
  • Finance Minister Éric Lombard says concessions would be necessary if the government falls, signaling cross‑party negotiations to scale back the fiscal package.
  • The Socialist Party unveils a counter‑budget with €26.9 billion in tax hikes, including a wealth levy of at least 2% on fortunes over €100 million, and vows to reject austerity.
  • Investor nerves deepen as French borrowing costs rise, with the 30‑year yield briefly topping 4.5%, and organizers plan a nationwide “Bloquons Tout” day of disruption on Sept. 10.