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Bayrou Faces Likely Defeat in Confidence Vote as Macron Prepares Successor

Macron seeks a successor able to secure Socialist neutrality to pass a credible savings plan before market tests.

Issus d’horizons divers, les appels à bloquer tout le pays le 10 septembre 2025 se multiplient sur les réseaux sociaux, cristallisés autour des coupes budgétaires souhaitées par François Bayrou.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Tondelier, Olivier Faure, Laurent Wauquiez et Marine Le Pen.
Plusieurs syndicats appellent à faire grève le 10 septembre.
Emmanuel Macron ne veut pas croire à l’impasse à laquelle devrait aboutir le vote du budget. Et tente, encore et encore, de remobiliser ses fi dèles. Ci-dessus, au fort de Brégançon, le 19 août.

Overview

  • Deputies are due to vote around 19:00 Monday after Bayrou’s Article 49.1 policy declaration on public finances, with opposition groups saying they will reject confidence.
  • If confidence is refused, Article 50 requires the government’s resignation, which would mark a first for a prime minister losing this type of 49.1 vote in the Fifth Republic if it occurs.
  • Macron is vetting candidates “open to the left” to lock in a PS non‑censure pact, with names circulating such as Sébastien Lecornu, Gérald Darmanin, Catherine Vautrin, Eric Lombard, Xavier Bertrand and, per some advisers, Jean‑Yves Le Drian, while LR leaders are split on any PS‑friendly arrangement.
  • Talks with the Socialists are expected to hinge on concessions, with figures on the left urging a smaller €43.8–44 billion savings effort and higher taxes on top wealth, as LFI rejects the approach.
  • The unresolved budget gap now collides with near‑term pressure points, including a Sept. 12 Fitch review and protest actions on Sept. 10 and Sept. 18 that could heighten market and political risks.