Overview

• The Assembly votes Monday at 15:00 with a result expected by 19:00, after the left and the RN pledged to oppose the government and LR signaled internal splits.
• Élysée advisers are sounding out successors without a decision, with names circulating such as Sébastien Lecornu, Gérald Darmanin, Catherine Vautrin, Éric Lombard, Xavier Bertrand and Jean‑Yves Le Drian.
• The presidency aims to avoid dissolving the Assembly and is weighing a caretaker phase or a center‑right appointment, as PS cooperation hinges on concessions Macron resists.
• Bayrou is defending a €44 billion savings plan for 2026 that has become a focal point for opponents preparing to vote against confidence.
• Protest plans are escalating, with a Sept. 10 “Bloquons tout” action and a Sept. 18 union mobilization, while polls show 46% support for the Sept. 10 call and 58% favor Macron stepping down if the government falls.