Overview

• Bayrou will address the Assembly at 15:00 before group replies and a paper‑ballot vote, with a result expected around 19:00.
• Lacking a majority, his camp counts about 210 potential votes versus roughly 353 declared in opposition, pointing to a likely defeat.
• The confidence move doubles as a validation attempt for a €43.8–44 billion 2026 savings package to reduce the public deficit.
• Under Article 50, a rejection requires Bayrou to submit his government's resignation to Emmanuel Macron, who then decides on a successor or a possible dissolution.
• A rejection would be the first under Article 49.1 in the Fifth Republic and is expected to heighten political and economic uncertainty, with evening rallies and a 10 September 'Bloquons tout' mobilisation signposted.