Overview
- The prime minister will deliver a policy statement at 15:00, followed by group responses and a paper-ballot vote with results expected around 19:00, according to the Assembly president’s office.
- Major opposition blocs — the left, the Rassemblement National and parts of Les Républicains — have announced votes against, making a defeat widely forecast.
- If deputies refuse confidence, Article 50 requires Bayrou to submit his government’s resignation to the president, with a caretaker phase likely until a successor is named or the Assembly is dissolved.
- Bayrou triggered the confidence vote after a budget impasse as he pressed his diagnosis on public debt and sought roughly €43.8 billion in 2026 savings, while analysts say prolonged instability is weighing on investment and hiring.
- Political and social fallout is already taking shape, with LR leaders debating conditions for supporting a successor and activists promoting evening “pots de départ” ahead of broader actions planned for 10 September.