Overview

• Deputies vote at 3 p.m. Monday with a result expected around 7 p.m., and defeat is widely anticipated given declared no votes from the left and the RN, while LR remains split as Laurent Wauquiez grants freedom to vote and Bruno Retailleau urges support.
• Under the constitution, rejection of confidence compels François Bayrou to tender his cabinet’s resignation, after which Emmanuel Macron may appoint a successor, maintain a caretaker team, or dissolve the National Assembly.
• Élysée sources say no successor has been chosen, with the president eyeing a centrist or center‑right profile able to negotiate non‑censure with the Socialists without conceding on core policies.
• Social tension builds before the 10 September “Bloquons tout” action backed by 46% in an Ipsos‑BVA‑CESI poll, as authorities warn a horizontal, leaderless movement could produce varied disruptions and unions prepare further mobilisation on 18 September.
• A YouGov survey reports 58% would want Macron to resign if Bayrou falls, and advisers note a Fitch ratings review later this week that could weigh on markets, adding pressure for swift decisions at the Élysée.