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Baylor vs. Kansas State in Waco: Odds Lean Toward Bears in Early Big 12 Test

Both teams arrive with 1-1 league marks after rebound wins that reinforced a renewed physical identity.

Will Sawyer Robertson and Baylor beat Kansas State on Saturday? Big 12 football predictions, picks, odds preview the college football Week 6 game on Oct. 4, 2025.
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Overview

  • Kickoff is Saturday, Oct. 4, at 11 a.m. in Waco with streaming on ESPN+.
  • Baylor enters 3-2 after a 45-27 road win at Oklahoma State, piling up 612 yards as QB Sawyer Robertson threw for 393 yards and four touchdowns.
  • Robertson has 1,713 passing yards and 17 TDs through five games, leading the Big 12 in yards per game.
  • Kansas State (2-3) beat previously unbeaten UCF 34-20, with Dylan Edwards rushing for 166 yards including a 75-yard score and Avery Johnson contributing two TD passes plus 75 rushing yards.
  • BetMGM lists Baylor as a 6.5-point favorite (-220 moneyline, 61.5 total), and coaches Dave Aranda and Chris Klieman cite physicality as a focal point, with K-State’s three losses decided by a combined 12 points.