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2w ago

Bayern Poll Shows CSU Slide as AfD Reaches Record High

The new Infratest dimap survey tightens the governing coalition's margin and increases pressure on Markus Söder ahead of the CSU party congress.

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Bayerns Ministerpräsident Markus Söder (CSU)
Hubert Aiwanger (l, Freie Wähler), Wirtschaftsminister von Bayern, und Markus Söder (CSU), Ministerpräsident von Bayern, nehmen nach einer Kabinettssitzung an der Pressekonferenz teil.

Overview

  • The Infratest dimap BR 'Bayerntrend', conducted Oct. 12–17 among 1,207 voters, puts the CSU at 36 percent (down three points) and the AfD at a record 21 percent for the pollster.
  • CSU and Freie Wähler together would reach 45 percent in the survey while the bloc of AfD, Greens and SPD totals 44 percent, leaving the government's majority precarious.
  • Die Linke polls at 4 percent, just below Bavaria's 5 percent threshold, so a small change in its support could cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.
  • Public satisfaction with Minister‑President Markus Söder is marginally negative at 48 percent satisfied versus 49 percent dissatisfied, heightening leadership and strategy pressure before the party meeting.
  • An independent GMS poll for Sat.1 Bayern shows a similar pattern (CSU 37 percent, AfD 22 percent), and the narrow margins increase the likelihood of coalition debate over options such as Schwarz‑Grün or three‑party combinations.