Overview
- Bavaria’s statistics office projects the population will rise from 13.25 million in 2024 to 13.53 million in 2044, a gain of 2.1%.
- Migration accounts for the growth as deaths exceeded births in 2024 (144,100 vs 114,000), and without newcomers the state would lose more than 6% of its people by 2044, with inflows surging in 2022 then dropping sharply in 2025.
- The population will skew older, with 687,000 more residents over 67 by 2044 and 41 retirees for every 100 working‑age people, which signals more demand for elder care and less pressure on childcare.
- Growth will cluster in the south and in major cities, with Munich up 4.7% and Erding up 4.9%, while parts of Upper Franconia shrink, led by the Wunsiedel district at minus 8.7%.
- To balance these trends, the state says it has moved about 2,500 public jobs out of the Munich area and plans another 2,500 by 2030 to strengthen slower‑growing regions.