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Bavaria Sees Sharp 2025 Drop in Immigration and Births

Officials say the downturn will ease pressure on childcare places.

Overview

  • From January to September 2025, about 83,900 births were recorded in Bavaria, roughly 3,150 fewer than a year earlier.
  • Net migration from abroad over the same period was about 22,600 more arrivals than departures, nearly 58% lower than in the first nine months of 2024.
  • Interior Minister Joachim Herrmann released the figures with the Statistisches Jahrbuch 2025 and said they signal easing demand for Kita and school places, even as Kita enrollment had risen about 15% to roughly 481,500 by March 2025.
  • The number of children under six has been declining since 2022, standing at just under 750,000 at the end of 2024.
  • Despite the short-term declines, the Bavarian statistical office still projects overall population growth through 2043, shaping longer-term planning.