Overview

• The CSU polls at 39 percent and the Free Voters at 11 percent, giving the governing partners a combined 50 percent that would sustain their Landtag majority in polling terms.
• Compared with the 2023 election, the CSU stands about two points higher as the Free Voters drop roughly 4.8 points, while AfD gains from 14.6 percent and both the Greens and SPD trail their prior results.
• Party standings in the survey show AfD at 19 percent, the Greens at 11 percent, the SPD at 7 percent, the Left at 4 percent, and both the FDP and BSW at 2 percent.
• The CSU’s reading is below peaks seen in some 2024 polls that placed the party around 42 to 43 percent.
• GMS interviewed 1,017 eligible voters in Bavaria from September 24 to 29 for Sat.1 Bayern’s Wählercheck, and the results are described as a snapshot rather than a prediction.