Overview

• Barroso confirmed an early retirement and is staying only briefly to wrap up cases, leaving open whether he will record a vote in the case on decriminalizing abortion up to 12 weeks.
• Reporting points to a three‑way contest: AGU chief Jorge Messias seen as Lula’s favorite for his trust, Senator Rodrigo Pacheco with strong Senate backing, and TCU minister Bruno Dantas as a consensus option, all in their 40s.
• Senate dynamics favor Pacheco, who is supported by CCJ power broker Davi Alcolumbre and has sympathizers in the Court, while Messias could face a tougher confirmation despite being viewed as technically solid.
• A Pacheco nomination would complicate Lula’s 2026 strategy in Minas Gerais, where the senator is regarded as a leading prospect for governor and a key ally for building a statewide coalition.
• Pressure is mounting from legal entities and social movements for a woman to be nominated, with STJ minister Daniela Teixeira frequently cited and Barroso saying he philosophically likes the idea of a woman succeeding him.