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Barrett Emerges as Pivotal Swing Vote, Exposing Fault Lines in Conservative Supermajority

Leaked documents revealing private tensions alongside rising liberal alignments underscore her break from GOP-appointed colleagues

Amy Coney Barrett giving a speech.
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Overview

  • Leaked internal notes show Barrett initially opposed hearing Dobbs v. Jackson but ultimately joined the majority to overturn Roe v. Wade in 2022.
  • A New York Times–cited analysis finds she sided with liberal justices on 82 percent of nonunanimous decisions in her second term, up from 39 percent in her first.
  • Barrett’s growing number of separate opinions criticize hard-line originalist reasoning by Justices Thomas and Alito, reflecting her more deliberate judicial style.
  • Conservative activists and some Trump allies have derided her as a “DEI hire” and publicly lamented her departures from presumed conservative positions.
  • Other court observers warn that fluctuations in short-term voting patterns can exaggerate a leftward shift and note that Barrett remains broadly conservative in major rulings.