Overview
- Odoxa surveyed 1,000 people on Nov. 19–20 and found Jordan Bardella would top the first round with 35%–36%, with a reported 2.5-point margin of error.
- Head-to-head testing showed him beating Jean-Luc Mélenchon 74% to 26% and edging Édouard Philippe 53% to 47%.
- This is the first Odoxa poll to project Bardella winning the presidency if a vote were held now.
- An earlier survey this month had him narrowly losing to Philippe in a runoff, highlighting divergent early readings.
- France’s two-round system has previously rallied broad alliances against Le Pen-family candidates, while Macron’s camp has struggled since the 2024 snap election produced a hung parliament.