Overview

• Barclays has reduced its S&P 500 year-end target to 5,900, the lowest projection among major banks, signaling diminished expectations for market performance.
• The revision reflects concerns over the economic impact of reciprocal tariffs set to take effect on April 2 and broader trade policy uncertainty.
• Barclays estimates tariffs could reduce S&P 500 earnings per share by up to 2.3%, with retaliatory measures further compounding the impact.
• While Barclays' base case predicts slowing U.S. economic activity without a recession, its bear case envisions a GDP contraction and S&P 500 drop to 4,400.
• Other banks, including Goldman Sachs and RBC, have also revised their S&P 500 targets downward, though their projections remain less bearish than Barclays'.