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Barcelona Faces Up to 4.5°C Warming by 2100, Expands Climate Shelter Network

New ICARIA projections show worsening heat metrics, prompting the AMB to increase climate adaptation measures, including a 31% expansion of public shelters.

Un hombre carga con un ventilador por la calle en plena ola de calor en el barrio de La Florida, en L'Hospitalet.
Tres niños juegan con el agua de una fuente del barrio de Santa Rosa, en Santa Coloma de Gramenet, una de las áreas vulnerables estudiadas.
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Overview

  • ICARIA climate models predict a 1.7–3.7°C average temperature rise in the Barcelona metropolitan area by 2100, with worst-case scenarios reaching 4.5°C.
  • Extreme heat days (above 30°C) are expected to increase by 70–83 annually, while days above 35°C will rise by at least 20.5 per year.
  • Tropical nights (>20°C) will grow by 74 annually, torrid nights (>25°C) by 47.2, and 'infernales' nights (>30°C) will appear with some frequency.
  • Heat waves are projected to increase by four additional events annually, lasting up to 10.4 days each, exacerbating heat-related risks.
  • To protect vulnerable populations, the AMB has expanded its climate shelter network to 244 sites (+31%), serving 80.5% of residents and 82.5% of the most at-risk individuals, with 58 more shelters planned in 2025.