Overview
- Private specialists trimmed their 2025 inflation forecast to 3.85%, the third straight monthly reduction from 3.95% in August.
- Respondents now see the policy rate near 7.14% at year‑end, implying additional easing from the current 7.50% with decisions slated for November 6 and December 18.
- Peso projections improved to 19.08 per dollar by end‑2025 and 19.62 in 2026, according to the Banxico survey.
- Sentiment remains weak as 81% say the economy is not better than a year ago and 43% call it a bad time to invest, with governance, external shocks and internal conditions cited as main constraints.
- Banamex’s quarterly review flags low growth, falling investment and recent formal‑job deceleration, warns that underspending risks could pressure core inflation in 2026, and notes Banxico’s tenth consecutive cut that set the rate at 7.5%.