Overview
- Banxico’s December poll shows a 0.39% median GDP growth forecast for 2025 and about 1.15% for 2026, with some reports citing a 0.37% average for next year.
- Survey respondents flagged governance issues as the main drag on activity, led by public insecurity (19%), followed by external trade policy concerns (15%).
- CEESP says Mexico is among the most affected by global uncertainty and U.S. tariffs, while the Citi private consensus pegs 2025 growth near 0.4% with forecasts ranging from 0.1% to 0.6%.
- INEGI data highlight weakening investment, with total investment down 0.3% month over month in September and steep annualized drops in construction (-10.2%) and machinery and equipment (-6.1%).
- Inflation expectations remain above the 3% target and analysts anticipate continued monetary easing, with the policy rate seen near 7.01% by end‑2025 and the peso projected around 18.5 per dollar.