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Banxico Opens Easing Cycle as Fed Minutes Expose Split Over December Cut

With key U.S. labor data delayed, investors now lean toward the Fed holding rates next month.

Overview

  • Banxico lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to 7.25% on Nov. 18 in a majority decision that included one vote to hold.
  • The board revised its guidance to say it will consider further reductions, citing a 3Q-25 GDP contraction and recent moderation in headline inflation.
  • The central bank cut its 4Q-25 headline inflation forecast to 3.5%, lifted near‑term core projections, and still targets 3% by 3Q-26.
  • Subgovernor Omar Mejía Castelazo said there is still room to ease and that rate cuts have greater impact when the economy is weak.
  • Fed minutes from the Oct. 28–29 meeting show a 10–2 vote for a 25 bp cut but deep divisions over a December move, with BLS jobs data delayed to Dec. 16 and CME FedWatch indicating higher odds of no change.