Overview
- Mexico’s central bank lowered its 2025 GDP projection from 0.6% to 0.3% in its July–September Quarterly Report, citing a deeper-than-expected third‑quarter contraction.
- Governor Victoria Rodríguez Ceja said the bank does not anticipate a further decline in output in the fourth quarter.
- Banxico maintained a 1.1% growth estimate for 2026 and projects 2.0% for 2027, contingent on unchanged trade relations within the USMCA.
- The outlook highlights persistent investment weakness at least through the second half of 2026, alongside firmer private consumption and only moderate export gains tied to U.S. industrial activity.
- The report underscores elevated global uncertainty from geopolitical and trade-policy shifts and calls for fiscal discipline, a well-capitalized financial system, and sustainable external accounts.