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4w ago

Banks Push Back BoE Rate-Cut Calls as Markets Price In September Hold

The Autumn Budget’s timing is shaping expectations for any later move.

FILE PHOTO: Flowers bloom outside the Bank of England building in London, Britain, August 4, 2025. REUTERS/Corey Rudy/File Photo
The Bank of England has a tricky path ahead

Overview

  • HSBC now projects no further BoE cuts until April 2026 and sees Bank Rate at 3.00% by February 2027, from 4% today.
  • Deutsche Bank shifted its next-cut call to December from November, pointing to a narrow 5–4 MPC split and the need to see fiscal details.
  • LSEG data show a 96.75% probability the Bank of England holds rates on September 18.
  • Governor Andrew Bailey told lawmakers there is considerably more doubt about when and how quickly further easing can proceed.
  • Recent data showing UK inflation at an 18‑month high, alongside rising mortgage rates reported by Moneyfacts, has reinforced forecasters’ caution.