Overview
- Global growth is projected to slow in 2026, with the IMF and OECD warning that risks are tilted to the downside.
- U.S. GDP has been buoyed by massive AI infrastructure spending from a handful of tech giants, with some estimates putting AI at roughly 40% of 2025 growth, even as bubble concerns rise.
- The labor market has weakened, with unemployment at 4.6% in November and hiring concentrated in health care, and economists expect a similarly soft jobs picture in 2026.
- U.S. trade policy has sharply lifted average tariffs to about 17.9%, and tensions with China persist as legal uncertainty over tariff authority carries into 2026.
- Major outlooks point to only moderate expansion, S&P Global sees rate cuts in the second half, JPMorgan assigns roughly 35% recession odds, and some analysts forecast relative outperformance in emerging markets such as India.