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Bank of Russia Sets Course to Neutral Rate in 2027, Signals Additional Easing in 2026

Governor Elvira Nabiullina told the State Duma the 2026 average key rate is now projected at 13–15%.

Overview

  • The policy rate stands at 16.5% today, with the 2025 average estimated at about 19%.
  • The central bank expects "some additional" reduction in the key rate next year.
  • The neutral range is assessed at 7.5–8.5%, which the bank expects to reach in 2027.
  • Forecasts refer to annual averages, with officials noting the year will start from a higher level than the average.
  • The guidance was delivered in a plenary address to lawmakers as an official update to the bank's outlook.