Overview
- The central bank now estimates Q3 2025 GDP rose 0.4% year on year, well below its July projection of 1.6%.
- It expects annual growth dynamics in the coming quarter between −0.5% and 0.5%, pointing to temporary production spikes last year and a closing positive output gap.
- The bank forecasts Q4 consumer‑price growth at a 6.8–8.7% annualised pace and sees year‑end inflation at 6.5–7%.
- Officials said signs of overheating are easing but could linger longer than previously thought, suggesting high interest rates will stay elevated for an extended period.
- Sector readings highlight declines in export‑oriented industries and uneven domestic activity, and several analysts caution that output may slip into contraction in Q4.