Overview
- Nearly 95% of economists in a Reuters poll (33 of 35) expect the BOK to hold at 2.50% on Oct. 23, and a KOFIA survey shows 85% of bond experts see no change this week.
- Preliminary customs figures for Oct. 1–20 show exports down 7.8% year over year and a $2.85 billion trade deficit as imports fell 2.3%.
- A rebound in home prices and heavy household debt are restraining policy easing, with Seoul’s apartment price-to-income ratio cited at 21.3.
- Currency stability remains a constraint after the won weakened about 2% since a July 30 U.S.-linked investment deal, with the BOK reporting net $800 million in FX sales in Q2.
- Most economists in the Reuters poll expect a 25-basis-point cut to 2.25% in November, citing weak growth and inflation near the 2% target.