Overview
- Most economists expect the MPC to keep Bank Rate at 4.0% in a narrowly divided vote.
- Markets now assign roughly a one‑in‑three chance of a 25bp cut to 3.75%, with Goldman Sachs and Barclays forecasting an immediate reduction.
- Headline inflation held at 3.8% in September as wage growth cooled and unemployment rose, strengthening the case for easing according to some analysts.
- The November 26 Budget, with broad tax increases expected, is a key uncertainty and has led investors to price a higher likelihood of a December cut.
- Today’s announcement will introduce summaries of individual MPC members’ views and place less emphasis on a single central inflation forecast.