Overview
- Investors and most economists expect the MPC to leave rates unchanged on Thursday, breaking the recent pattern of cutting about every other meeting.
- Market pricing points to an almost 60% probability of a rate reduction on Dec. 18 after softer inflation, jobs and output data in recent weeks.
- Barclays and Goldman Sachs forecast a near-term move to roughly 3.75%, highlighting that some analysts see enough evidence to justify an earlier cut.
- Official data show CPI at 3.8% in September, unchanged from July and August, with food prices easing but overall inflation still above target.
- Officials have signaled a desire to assess the Nov. 26 Budget before easing further, and Governor Andrew Bailey has said the timing of any cut remains uncertain.