Overview

• The Monetary Policy Committee voted 6–3 to maintain the base rate at 4.25%, postponing any immediate cut.
• MPC member Megan Greene cautioned that inflation may plateau around 3.5%, sustaining pressure on wages and consumer prices.
• She highlighted upside surprises in food costs and warned that the Israel-Iran conflict could drive oil prices higher.
• Consumer spending is expected to stay under pressure as borrowers roll off fixed-rate mortgages onto more expensive loans.
• Signs of weak underlying activity and a cooling jobs market are reinforcing caution over future rate reductions.