Overview
- The Monetary Policy Committee voted 5-4 to keep Bank Rate at 4.0%, with four members seeking an immediate cut and Governor Andrew Bailey choosing to wait.
- For the first time, the Bank published individual summaries of MPC members’ views and revised its language to condition further easing on sustained disinflation.
- Official projections judge that inflation has peaked but will stay above the 2% target until around the second quarter of 2027, with unemployment expected to rise a little above 5%.
- Markets increased bets on a December move, pricing roughly a 60% chance after policymakers assess the 26 November budget and fresh inflation and labour data.
- This is the first pause since the trimming cycle began in August 2024, as the Bank seeks more evidence before resuming cuts.