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Bank of England Holds Rate at 4% After 5–4 Split, Keeps December Cut in Play

A December cut is possible if post‑Budget details confirm a durable decline in inflation.

Swiss National Bank (SNB) headquarters are seen in Zurich, Switzerland March 16, 2023. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse
The equestrian statue of the Duke of Wellington with The Bank of England building in the background, on the day of the Monetary Policy Report press conference, in London, Britain, November 6, 2025. REUTERS/Maja Smiejkowska
A general view of the Bank of England building in London, Britain, June 24, 2025. REUTERS/Carlos Jasso/File Photo
The Bank of England building and the west facade of the Royal Exchange, on the day of the Monetary Policy Report press conference, in London, Britain, November 6, 2025. REUTERS/Maja Smiejkowska

Overview

  • Five MPC members, including Governor Andrew Bailey, voted to hold, while four backed a 25 basis‑point cut to 3.75%.
  • The Bank judged inflation has likely peaked at about 3.8% and projects a gradual return toward the 2% target over the coming years.
  • Bailey said rates remain on a gradual downward path but further easing requires clearer evidence of disinflation, with the next decision due on December 18.
  • Officials flagged weaker demand and a softer labour market, lifting the projected unemployment peak to around 5.1% and citing growth drags from Budget uncertainty, US tariffs and the Jaguar Land Rover cyber‑attack.
  • Several banks, including Barclays and Goldman Sachs, had predicted an immediate cut, but the Bank opted to wait for fresh data and the government’s 26 November Budget before moving.