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Bank of England Holds at 4% in 5–4 Split, Fuelling Bets on December Cut

Markets now focus on the 26 November Budget to gauge the odds of a December cut.

Swiss National Bank (SNB) headquarters are seen in Zurich, Switzerland March 16, 2023. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse
The equestrian statue of the Duke of Wellington with The Bank of England building in the background, on the day of the Monetary Policy Report press conference, in London, Britain, November 6, 2025. REUTERS/Maja Smiejkowska
A general view of the Bank of England building in London, Britain, June 24, 2025. REUTERS/Carlos Jasso/File Photo

Overview

  • The MPC voted 5-4 to keep Bank Rate at 4%, with four members backing an immediate 25bp reduction to 3.75%.
  • The Bank says CPI inflation has likely peaked at 3.8% and is expected to ease toward the 2% target by 2027.
  • New forecasts point to a softer labour market, with unemployment peaking near 5.1%, and only modest GDP growth of roughly 1.2–1.6% over the next two years.
  • In a transparency shift, the Bank began publishing summaries of individual MPC members’ views and broadened the use of alternative scenarios beyond a single central forecast.
  • Investors raised the probability of a December cut, with the Budget on 26 November and upcoming inflation and jobs data highlighted as key determinants.