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4w ago

Bank of England Holds at 4% in 5–4 Split, Flags Peak Inflation and Possible December Cut

A close hold boosted market odds of a December cut.

Swiss National Bank (SNB) headquarters are seen in Zurich, Switzerland March 16, 2023. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse
The equestrian statue of the Duke of Wellington with The Bank of England building in the background, on the day of the Monetary Policy Report press conference, in London, Britain, November 6, 2025. REUTERS/Maja Smiejkowska
A general view of the Bank of England building in London, Britain, June 24, 2025. REUTERS/Carlos Jasso/File Photo
The Bank of England building and the west facade of the Royal Exchange, on the day of the Monetary Policy Report press conference, in London, Britain, November 6, 2025. REUTERS/Maja Smiejkowska

Overview

  • The Monetary Policy Committee voted 5–4 to keep Bank Rate at 4%, with four members backing an immediate quarter‑point reduction.
  • The Bank said inflation likely peaked at 3.8% and projects a gradual fall toward its 2% target, with GDP growth around 1.2% next year and 1.6% in 2027.
  • Unemployment is now forecast to peak near 5.1%, reflecting a softer labour market and subdued hiring intentions.
  • Investors lifted the probability of a December move, with pricing reported near a 60% chance pending fresh inflation and jobs data.
  • The decision came with a communications shift that adds individual MPC member summaries and broader scenario analysis, as the Bank waits to assess the 26 November Budget’s impact.