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Bank of Canada Flags Rising Vulnerabilities Despite System Resilience

High asset valuations, growing non-bank leverage, and mortgage‑renewal pressures could combine with geopolitical or AI risks to spread stress across markets.

Overview

  • The Bank of Canada said Thursday that Canada’s financial system is well positioned to weather shocks but that specific vulnerabilities have increased in parts of the system.
  • The central bank singled out high stock and corporate debt valuations as a source of risk because a sharp repricing could force asset managers to sell holdings and raise urgent demand for cash.
  • Non-bank financial intermediaries are taking on more leverage to buy government bonds, which supports liquidity in calm times but could amplify stress and destabilize short‑term funding markets if conditions worsen.
  • Household mortgage‑renewal pressure remains concentrated with final waves of higher‑rate renewals expected to pass by the second half of 2027 while overall arrears have stabilized.
  • The BoC warned that external shocks — including trade tensions, the Middle East war and oil shocks — together with emerging AI and cyber risks could trigger a cascade of market stress and wider economic fallout.