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Bank of America Lifts 12-Month S&P 500 Target to 7,200 on Profit-Led Outlook

BofA credits a productivity-driven profit cycle, with AI as incremental upside.

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on August 13, 2025 in New York.
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The S&P 500 opened with Bank of America eyeing 7,200 within a year.

Overview

  • The new 12-month target implies roughly 8% upside from the S&P 500’s Sept. 29 level near 6,661.
  • BofA bases the call on earnings power rather than multiple expansion, forecasting about 12% EPS growth and noting its Earnings Surprise model has turned positive.
  • Strategists point to a pickup in productivity and business investment as the core driver, describing AI as supportive rather than the main engine.
  • The bank expects leadership to broaden beyond mega-cap tech into areas such as energy, machinery, equipment, and financials as capex accelerates.
  • Risks include slower EPS growth, delayed Fed cuts, sticky inflation, and tariff shocks, while peers remain divided with targets near 7,000 at BMO, 6,800 at Goldman Sachs, and 6,500 at Morgan Stanley.