Overview

• Analyst Ken Hoexter lowered FedEx to Neutral from Buy and UPS to Underperform from Neutral, assigning targets of $240 for FedEx and $83 for UPS.
• His note cites rising cost pressure and weaker demand after the U.S. ended a tariff exemption for low‑value imports, which had supported small‑parcel flows.
• Bank of America highlighted a nearly 35% year‑over‑year drop in U.S.–China parcel volumes in May and June after China lost de minimis access.
• For UPS, Hoexter cut earnings estimates and flagged difficulty offsetting lost volume as Amazon shipments shrink, with Amazon still representing roughly 11% of revenue.
• For FedEx, he reduced earnings forecasts and lowered the Express margin outlook to 6.9%, noting ongoing cost cuts and the planned Freight spin‑off do not fully offset trade and inflation headwinds.