Overview
- Bank of America’s transaction data show spending from Thanksgiving through early December rising about 4.25%–4.5% compared with last November.
- Moynihan reports wages growing near 3% with employment and credit quality holding up, even as consumers continue to express affordability worries.
- Bank of America projects a broad de‑escalation toward roughly 15% tariff rates for many trading partners, while China remains a distinct, more restrictive case.
- Tariffs and higher rates hit small businesses earlier in the year, but with some rate relief their foremost concern has shifted to securing labor under unresolved immigration policy.
- The Federal Reserve describes housing activity as weak, and Moynihan expects limited mortgage relief with the 10‑year near 4%–4.5%, arguing that adding supply and easing permitting would improve affordability.