Overview
- An analytical report from Banco Provincia’s Gerencia de Estudios Económicos projects a floor above 2% for monthly inflation during the first six months of 2026.
- The assessment points to exchange-rate dynamics, increases in public and private service prices, and a newly reweighted CPI basket that began this month.
- The study notes that higher fuel taxes and a possible removal of subsidies could reinforce elevated monthly readings.
- Maintaining monthly inflation above 2% through midyear would be sufficient to prevent achieving the 2026 budget’s 10.1% annual target.
- The report cites December 2025 inflation of 2.8% and a 2025 total of 31.5% as a significant deceleration, yet still high by regional standards, with two months of increases matching a full year in Brazil, Chile, or Uruguay.