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Baird Initiates Microsoft at Outperform, Citing AI-Fueled Azure Growth, Copilot Scale and Rising Capex

Fresh analyst coverage underscores AI as the driver of Microsoft’s next phase of growth.

Overview

  • Microsoft beat fiscal Q1 expectations with earnings of $4.13 per share on revenue of $77.67 billion, as Azure grew about 40% year over year on AI demand.
  • The company guided fiscal Q2 revenue to $79.5 billion–$80.6 billion and forecast roughly 37% constant-currency growth for Azure.
  • Baird launched coverage with an Outperform rating and a $600 price target, pointing to Microsoft’s leadership across AI infrastructure and applications.
  • Analyst William Power projects about $74 billion in free cash flow for fiscal 2026 even as capital expenditures are estimated to rise from $88 billion to $143 billion to build AI infrastructure.
  • Blockonomi reports Copilot has roughly 150 million monthly active users and that cloud now contributes about 60% of revenue, with an operating margin near 49% and free cash flow margin around 33%.