Overview
- Global luxury spending is expected to finish 2025 broadly flat at about €1.44 trillion, with personal luxury goods slipping 2% to roughly €358 billion.
- Bain forecasts a 3% to 5% rebound in 2026 led by U.S. momentum and early stabilization in China, with Europe and Japan softer and the Middle East still expanding.
- The customer base has contracted to roughly 340 million from about 400 million in 2022, and even big spenders report fatigue after years of price elevation.
- Accessible-luxury brands are faring better than top-tier and aspirational labels, jewelry is holding up on more measured pricing, and footwear and handbags are the laggards after steep hikes.
- Inventory and profitability pressures are mounting, with stock-to-revenue ratios up 3–4 points versus 2019 and EBITDA margins near 15–16%, prompting Bain to urge clearer entry-price offers, pricing resets and use of outlet or off-price channels; Kering’s internal review underscores the shift.