Overview
- Bain presented a mid-2026 update on June 25 that raised its base-case for global personal luxury goods to about 2%–4% growth this year, lifting the market to roughly €365–€373 billion from €358 billion in 2025.
- The recovery is uneven with the United States leading the rebound as younger and aspirational shoppers boost demand and some U.S. luxury revenues rose as much as 10%–15% in Q1 2026.
- China is showing a gradual return driven by ready-to-wear and strong online sales while Europe and the Middle East lag because lower tourist flows and regional tensions have cut spending.
- The industry faces structural change as experiences are growing faster than goods, about half of luxury shoppers use AI in discovery or comparison, roughly half consult resale before buying, and roughly 70 million consumers have been lost since 2022.
- Footwear, battered in prior years, is expected to begin recovering in the second half of 2026 as brands recalibrate prices and entry points, a shift that will test whether investments in AI, experience and value messaging can convert consumer intent into sales.