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Bain Says AI Will Need $2 Trillion in Annual Revenue by 2030, Leaving an $800 Billion Gap

The firm warns compute demand is outpacing chip efficiency, putting stress on power grids and the industry’s monetization plans.

Overview

  • Global incremental AI compute requirements could reach about 200 gigawatts by 2030, with roughly half expected in the United States, Bain estimates.
  • Even shifting all US on‑premise IT budgets to cloud and reinvesting AI‑driven savings would not close the funding gap as compute demand grows more than twice as fast as Moore’s Law, the report finds.
  • Technology leaders may need to deploy around $500 billion in capital expenditures by 2030, while most organizations still sit in experimentation phases despite early leaders reporting 10%–25% EBITDA gains.
  • Gartner forecasts worldwide AI spending near $1.5 trillion in 2025 and over $2.02 trillion in 2026, driven by investments in services, AI‑optimized servers, semiconductors, and device integration.
  • BCG and market reporting highlight India’s rapid AI expansion—projected to exceed $17 billion by 2027—alongside growing adoption across IT operations, software development, data management, and cybersecurity.