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BaFin Warns of Persistent Market Risks from U.S. Tariff Policy

German financial regulator highlights systemic volatility, rising insolvency threats, and service vulnerabilities while advocating proportional regulation.

Overview

  • BaFin President Mark Branson warns that erratic U.S. tariff policy continues to drive extreme market volatility with potential system-wide consequences.
  • The regulator identifies high uncertainty and spillover risks from nonbank sectors to banks, despite prior resilience during earlier turbulence.
  • Declining interest-rate income and rising corporate insolvencies are increasing the likelihood of loan defaults, posing further stress on the financial system.
  • BaFin signals reduced implementation of European Banking Authority ESG guidelines for small banks, citing unnecessary complexity.
  • Increased scrutiny will be directed at commercial real-estate financing and corporate lending as default provisions rise.