Overview
- Kemi Badenoch has seen a marked rebound in popularity with polls showing large improvements in her personal approval over the past year, strengthening her standing in the Commons and on TV.
- Party-level support for the Conservatives remains around the high teens and behind Labour, so the boost to her profile has not yet translated into broad voter backing.
- Recent large polls and seat projections suggest scenarios where the Conservatives could finish second to Labour and win more seats than Reform UK, giving tactical openings because UK vote-to-seat geography favors the Tories in some areas.
- The party has shifted sharply to the right under Badenoch with proposals such as leaving the ECHR, tougher deportation plans, cuts to foreign aid and ditching net zero, a strategy aimed at reclaiming Reform voters but risking centre-ground losses.
- She faces major practical barriers to converting momentum into power: a weak shadow frontbench, chaotic candidate selection, a depleted local machine and the need to recruit experienced figures, and different outlets frame her progress variably from optimistic to cautious.