Overview

• At the party gathering in Manchester, thin attendance and a subdued mood underscored the Conservatives’ organizational and morale problems.
• Kemi Badenoch touted a US‑style deportation unit claimed to handle up to 150,000 removals a year and pledged to seek withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights to ease deportations.
• Reform UK is polling around 30% and has overtaken the Conservatives, who sit near 16–17%, with YouGov projecting the Tories could fall to roughly 68 seats if an election were held now.
• Experts and former Tory figures warn the rightward shift risks driving moderates away, with Dominic Grieve likening the approach to political self‑destruction and analysts urging focus on the economy and the NHS.
• Leadership pressure is intensifying, with Robert Jenrick discussed as a potential successor and some analysts predicting a challenge could follow poor local election results next May.