Overview
- Two surveys published October 16 and reported this week show the CDU leading on 29–31 percent, with the AfD at 20–21 percent and the Greens at 17–20 percent.
- Cem Özdemir enters the race as an underdog to CDU leader Manuel Hagel, who aims to end a decade of Green-led governance.
- Hagel rules out cooperation with AfD candidate Markus Frohnmaier and signals interest in a CDU–SPD–FDP 'Deutschland coalition' if numbers allow.
- The FDP sits on the threshold at 5–7 percent, while Die Linke polls near 7 percent and could enter the Landtag for the first time.
- Polls carry typical error margins of up to about three points, though analysts note past state polling in 2021 was comparatively accurate.